Back in 2016, late Democratic consultant Pat Caddell accused Reuters of rigging polls to turn a Donald Trump lead over Hillary Clinton into the reverse. “I suppose you can get away with it in polling because there are no laws,” an incredulous Caddell remarked. “But, if this was accounting, they would put them in jail.”
And little has changed since then. So says another political consultant, ex-Democrat Dick Morris. Referencing an analysis of hundreds of polls taken over many years, Morris states that they routinely inflate Democrats’ numbers. That is, they do this over summer months. But then, to avoid embarrassment, they become more accurate in September and October, the politics wonk asserts.
And now, get this: Morris made his comments a week ago, during August’s closing days. True to form, too, pollsters had been telling us all summer that the Republicans were poised for a midterm shellacking. But what do we witness now? On Wednesday, September 2, a poll was released showing the GOP with a likely-voter lead in the generic congressional ballot.
This season has already seen some major polling “anomalies.” An analysis by a political expert last week reinforced claims of pollster inaccuracy this summer through primary results involving Abdul Mohammed El-Sayed, who was given double-digit leads in the Michigan Democrat senatorial primary but barely eked out a 1% victory, and the Florida Democrat senatorial primary, where ex-military hustler Alexander Vindman held a polling lead that collapsed by 12 points against socialist Angie Nixon.
Now, to be fair, these anomalies don’t prove corruption. Primary elections are notoriously difficult to poll accurately due to low and unpredictable turnout, late candidate dropouts or consolidations, shifting voter preferences, and high undecided shares. However, the mercurial nature of primaries doesn’t explain what Morris related.
Morris reports on a study by Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights. Ruffini analyzed results from more than 3,000 polls taken during senatorial election campaigns over the years. He discovered that pollsters have been regularly overstating the numbers for Democrat candidates in the months leading up to the election, with emphasis on summer months. Then, during the final weeks of the campaign, the pollsters carefully “ratchet back” their results to align with actual voter sentiment. Ruffini found that pollsters overestimated Democrats by 3.7 percentage points on average. This error increased to approximately 5.9 points during summer months and then corrected in autumn.
Speaking of which, this brings us to this cycle’s first “correction.” Recent data from a major polling organization shows Republicans now leading Democrats in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. Among likely voters, Republicans hold a two-point edge over Democrats. Among registered voters, Democrats still lead by two points, but even that is good news for the GOP, as experts say Democrats need a 3-4-point lead to retake the majority.
There’s still more good news for the GOP. Seven in 10 respondents said they are likely to vote, with Republicans reporting slightly higher turnout enthusiasm than Democrats—a shift far from the enthusiasm gap Democrats were counting on this cycle. This may be contrary to the conventional narrative that many rank-and-file Republicans are disenchanted with their party.
This all raises a question: What’s the point of these polling machinations if they’re only revealed as election approaches? The expert noted that inflated numbers aren’t aimed at voters (who typically pay no attention until after Labor Day) or even the Democrats. They’re targeted at Republicans, particularly those associated with the Russell Kirk Institute for Defeatism Studies, who are quick to respond to weekly results with cries of “It’s over… Nothing can be done… Let’s all go home now.”
Perhaps, but there may be another explanation. People have a different mentality during peak summer months—enjoying barbecues, vacations, and sun. They’re less likely to focus on elections (a reality that often eludes professional commentators). Yet by late August-early September, it’s back to school and “reality.” Elections approach and minds reset. More people become focused on politics. What many will discover when they tune in?
They’ll learn that the Democrats have gone, and still are, bat crazy—still the party that doesn’t know the difference between boys and girls. Such a realization can shift polls significantly. This aligns with Ruffini’s findings. He studied polls from the last four election cycles, beginning with 2018—the point when Democrats went full cuckoo’s nest.
The tuning-in explanation is a theory but has evidence: Republican pollster John McLaughlin surveyed likely voters August 18-24 and found the Democrats ahead by five points (48 to 43 percent). With nine percent undecided, there was room for a shift. Commentator Bill O’Reilly has trusted McLaughlin on his show. The point is that he reported typical summertime polling results—and wasn’t likely altering the books for Democrats.
So what’s the verdict? People gravitate toward simple explanations—“Everything’s basically OK” or “Everything’s a conspiracy.” But I suspect the truth is more nuanced, as it usually is. While some polling is corrupt, there are pollsters who do their job. Many voters are fickle too. Operating on taste rather than truth, a little news can mean a whole new political fling. At the intersection of this corruption and confusion lies the fate of our nation.