Marine Le Pen, the three-time presidential candidate and leader of France’s National Rally (NR), has surged to 35 percent support in polls, significantly ahead of her opponents. Her campaign promises include reversing what she describes as the “Great Replacement” of French citizens by Third World immigrants who have allegedly destabilized Paris through terror attacks.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) warns that Le Pen’s victory would mark the first time a far-right government has ruled France since Marshal Petain’s Vichy regime in 1940–1944. This outcome could send shockwaves across Europe, given France’s role as one of its two nuclear-armed nations and its central position in European politics.
Le Pen’s proposed policies, dubbed “national preference,” would prioritize French citizens over foreigners for public services and welfare while implementing stricter law-and-order measures targeting migration and crime. Her party has also expressed skepticism toward NATO, raising concerns among global security experts. Recent polling shows her lead is substantial: a Verian survey recorded her at 37 percent, 20 points ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe; an Elabe poll showed her at 35 percent, 18.5 points above Philippe. The second round of voting is scheduled for May 2, 2026.
Le Pen has pledged to shut down extremist mosques if elected, a stance she claims would address the root causes of radicalization. A recent case in Lyon highlights growing tensions: a 26-year-old French woman describes daily harassment by immigrant groups after turning down their advances, including incidents where her boyfriend was stabbed while protecting his neck and drug dealers operate “day and night” near her home.
Additional incidents include:
– In 2022, a drunk or stoned migrant harassed two young girls on a tram; when a pregnant woman intervened, he kicked her three times in the stomach.
– In 2022, a French father faced criminal charges after a migrant sexually assaulted his six-year-old daughter.
– In 2022, an illegal alien murdered a 12-year-old girl and concealed her body in a plastic box.
– In 2020, a Tunisian migrant slashed a woman’s throat inside a Catholic basilica in Nice.
– In 2019, an illegal alien detonated a bomb in Lyon.
– In 2016, a Tunisian migrant drove a truck into a crowd during Bastille Day celebrations in Nice.
– In 2016, two Muslims murdered Catholic priest Jacques Hamel during Mass by forcing him to kneel and then slitting his throat.
The ECFR notes that Le Pen’s victory would be the first time a far-right government has ruled France since Vichy.