Despite his public statements that position him as a far-left sexual revolutionary, Democrat James Talarico has now taken the lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat vacated by former Senator John Cornyn.
Talarico leads Paxton by 1.2 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls and holds an estimated 52 percent chance of winning the election, according to Polymarket analysis. His margin has grown steadily as his campaign gains traction against Paxton, a MAGA-aligned candidate who previously unseated Cornyn in May’s primary.
The race hinges on whether Talarico can withstand mounting attacks from Paxton’s campaign, which aims to portray him as an advocate for “weirdos” and sex perverts due to his public assertions that God is nonbinary. Polls show Talarico has won four out of the last six surveys, with a high point of 47 percent to 43 percent in the Texas A&M/Siena survey.
A mid-July poll by TPOR showed Talarico leading Paxton 45-40, and the candidate has never been defeated by more than two points. The Real Clear Politics average indicates Talarico’s lead stands at 46-44.8.
Talarico’s rise comes amid plummeting approval ratings for President Trump, who faces severe criticism over his policies in Iran and economic conditions. A majority of Americans (57.2 percent) disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 60.6 percent disapprove of his handling of Iran—a gap that has driven significant discontent among even his most loyal supporters.
The economic challenges have also worsened: 60.8 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s overall management of the economy.
For Republicans running for office in November, the political landscape appears bleak. Real Clear Politics data shows Democrats leading in the generic congressional vote by a margin of 48.2-41.8. Republicans have won only 10 polls since January 2025.
Paxton’s campaign has already begun targeting Talarico for his controversial statements, including claims that he uses Scripture to justify policies protecting children from bullying and promoting gender identity. In a statement released as Paxton neared victory, a prominent conservative group criticized Talarico, calling him “a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary” and warning that Texas would not accept “open borders.”
Talarico has drawn particular scrutiny for his advocacy of LGBTQ+ issues in children’s education. He opposed legislation in 2021 that would have kept boys who identify as girls out of women’s sports, arguing such laws were harmful to children. He also claims the Bible supports a nonbinary understanding of God and that trans children are made in God’s image.
Critics note Talarico’s church has provided children with books containing explicit content, including descriptions of sexual acts and discussions on gender identity. Some materials include “Gender Queer” (with illustrations of masturbation), “All Boys Aren’t Blue” (discussing anal rape and incest), and others.
Talarico has also recruited Jacob Smith, a former policy advisor for Senator Cornyn, as his deputy policy chief. Smith stated Talarico focuses on practical issues like lowering costs for all Texans without partisan politics.
The growing Democratic appeal to Republican voters frustrated with Trump’s policies presents an additional challenge for the GOP. With key races in states like Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Arizona, Democrats are increasingly turning to Republican endorsements to win statewide contests.
As Texans grapple with rising costs of living and energy, many fear the only effective defense against Talarico’s campaign is painting him as a threat who would place boys in restrooms with girls—a concern that may overshadow more pressing economic issues.