Despite President Donald Trump’s Friday announcement of an oil deal with Venezuela, gas prices rose on Monday. The spike followed a weekslong lull in U.S.-Iran tensions that ended after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attempted to mine the Strait of Hormuz.
The administration claims the agreement—described by the president as “the biggest oil deal in world history”—will grant U.S. control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil at no cost to taxpayers, doubling America’s reserves and lowering gas prices. However, experts warn that fuel price reductions won’t materialize overnight or even within months. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy reported rising pump prices nationwide: $3.79 in Austin and San Antonio, $4.39 in Pennsylvania, and nearly $4.59 in Idaho.
Tracy Schuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader, noted that Venezuela’s current output—1.2 million barrels per day—is largely from existing wells boosted by sanctions relief, not new drilling. “The easy barrels are already back,” she stated. “The reserve number is a stock that will take decades to convert to flow.” Amna Bakr, an energy journalist, added that building infrastructure to increase Venezuelan output beyond 1.5 million barrels per day requires years of consistent investment.
UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office cautioned the deal “is unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term,” noting Venezuela has increased production by only 100,000–200,000 barrels per day this year and that large-scale investment remains critical. Oil researcher Rory Johnston called the 65 billion barrel figure a “red herring,” emphasizing it has little relevance to actual deals and that real terms remain largely unknown.
The agreement also faces legal challenges. Critics argue it conflicts with Venezuela’s 1999 constitution, which states oil reserves belong to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and cannot be sold. U.S. investment in a Venezuelan company through a 35% passive stake has raised concerns about political instability. Analysts stress that current geopolitical tensions and Venezuela’s history of instability make swift gas price reductions improbable under this arrangement.